"BE PREPARED" |
| Yes, the Boy Scout motto, (I was denied promotion from the Cub Scouts, but that's another story). So what is this about?
Our current economic money mess and the
future, I’m afraid. The articles and other information that you will find here come from many sources. They range from unusual, to educational, to some that are down right depressing and scary. The authors are professionals, from areas as varied as banking, economics, finance, science, sociology, agriculture, and medicine. One of the authors talked about educating others and ‘helping others to prepare’. Since I have access to this page, I think this is the least I can do. All we really have is time and choices. What follows are choices and information I believe will be useful… I hope what you choose, works for you. |
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| CONTENTS: Questions, topics, and ideas you may not have thought about… on the following pages are some of the articles that answer and explain them.
If you are aware, or know the answers to only half of following list… never mind!
Of course, NONE of the INFORMATION OR STATEMENTS ON THESE PAGES ARE GUARANTEED, WARRANTED, OR OTHERWISE KNOWN TO BE TRUE, or recommended. The WEB SITE MANAGER reserves all rights, to censor, change, and comment on the content, and assumes absolutely no responsibility for your use of the knowledge, or uses of the information presented here, as none of it is tested, or proved valid, but is of a curious nature, which of course is among the many reasons it MAY appear to have a useful purpose. Other information found here will have actually been used or acted upon by the manager. These will be noted; however, there will be some occasions that will warrant an obvious warning to the general public. Other times an evaluation by the manager, or others, will accompany a particular entry, relating to its veracity. Forewarned is forearmed. Don Thompson, website editor and manager (for now). |
| 1 Why all the adds now: "We buy Gold and Silver"? 2 How much money has the Fed printed... 4 Are precious metals expensive today? And why are gold and silver "precious?" 5 How much gold is there in the world? and who has it? 6 “If a sales person says he knows whether it’s a good or bad time to buy gold – run away. If he knew that answer, he wouldn’t be working for a living.” 7 What happened to the gold and silver coins we used to carry in our pockets? 8 "If you are buying gold for the right reasons, then there is no such thing as the wrong time and/or price. All that matters is that you have the proper percentage of it present in your long-term portfolio. " Whether or not a bubble develops and/or pops, your sleep patterns will not be disturbed by gold's daily and weekly gyrations”. Last time you checked, did you find that you had bought your life insurance policy with the intent to cash in on it really soon? 9 The 10 rules of silver investing. - David Morgan 10 Silver is rarer and scarcer than gold and it sells for less than 1.5% of the price of gold. So, if you like gold, you should love silver. 11 Silver is both an industrial and precious metal. 12 Only oil has more patents for it's use than silver. 13 The new 'Silver/Zinc' battery will be bigger than the Ni/cad and Ni/Mh batteries combined! 14 1938 prices... i.e. a loaf of bread cost 9 cents. 15 Silver is anti-microbial - so Biomedical uses are many. 16 Silver is gold's poodle 17 What is a reasonable "low of the low" price for gold? 18 What is a Force Majeure? 19 Lies will seek you out, but the truth must be sought. 20 Faith, gold, and silver will be priceless in the days ahead. 21 Madoff and Silver... With him the key was to be out... with silver the key is to be in... don't miss this opportunity! |
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| How low can gold go?... $587/oz! (And what about silver?) Silver Stock Report by Jason Hommel, February 21, 2007 Today, Feb.21, 2007, gold moved up by $23/oz., and was up by about 3.5% in nearly all currencies. Does this mean that now is a risky time to buy gold? Well, I think you have to look at the potential upside gains verses the downside risk. In past reports, I've gone over how high the gold price can go, based, in part on the high price of gold in 1980 which was $850/oz., and doing an inflation-adjusted calculation based on money-creation rates. The way I do that is by looking at a measure of money in the banks, which is M3. M3 in 1980 was $1.823 trillion, and today, M3 is about $11.5 trillion, (source: http://www.nowandfutures.com/key_stats.html). The math is simple: A possible high price for gold is $850/oz., times 11.5 divided by 1.823, which is $5,362/oz. Another way to get a possible high price for gold is if all of M3 were to be fully backed by the official U.S. gold horde, of 261 million ounces (if such gold still exists), the gold price would be $44,000/oz. But I think it's equally important to focus on how low gold can go. Clearly, I think everyone can agree that gold prices are not going to drop to $1/oz., or some silly low number. Gold is always going to have some reasonable, minimum value. And every investor ought to know about the possible downside of any investment. One way to do determine that, is to look at a very low price of gold in the past, an unsustainable low price, such as $35/oz. in 1971. At that time, gold was held at $35/oz. ever since the great depression, and gold could no longer be contained at such a low price as there was substantial money creation between the decades of the 1930's to the 70's. So, I think it's also important to look at the amount of money, in 1971, that year of a historic low in the gold price. http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h6/hist/h6hista.txt From the Federal Reserve's Chart, we can see that M3 was 685 billion dollars in 1971. So, we take 11.5 trillion, divide by 685 billion, times $35/oz. to get our number. Again, this will give us a reasonable "low of the low" price for gold, a true "inflation-adjusted" price that compares to $35/oz. in 1971. That number, today, is $587/oz.! But what about silver?... read on !!!! Surprisingly, gold was recently as low as $255 in mid 1999, almost eight years ago now. At that time, there was less paper money than there is today. In fact, you may not realize it, but in January, 1999, M3 stood at only $6.08 trillion, about half what it is today. That means the 1971 inflation adjusted low price for gold in 1999 was $310/oz.! Wow. So, it really doesn't matter very much whether you bought gold 8 years ago, or today, you are still buying gold at near rock bottom, all time low, inflation-adjusted prices. Let me give you a few analogies to show you how important this information is. In the movie series, "Back to the Future" with Michael J. Fox, the bully ended up getting a hold of a book that recorded the outcome of future sporting events. He used that information to make bets on who would win, and he made a huge fortune. In an interesting book called, "Replay", the main character's old adult mind is sent back into his 18 year old body, so he gets to "replay" his life. He uses his knowledge of the future in a similar way; at first, he makes sport bets, and then later to invest in things like Microsoft stock back when it would have mattered. You can do almost exactly the same thing with the information I have just presented to you. All you have to do, is buy gold. Because it's like 1971, but probably only better than that today. What's really better is silver. In 1971, there was a whole lot of silver coinage that was no longer being used as coinage, because the silver content had risen past the metal value in the last year that they minted coins, in 1964. Today, however, a lot of that silver has been melted down and consumed by industry, so silver is both more rare, and much cheaper now, relatively speaking, than it was back then, when more people knew silver had value. In 1964, a dollar's worth of silver coins were made up of 72% of an ounce of silver, so when silver was worth more than $1.39/oz., they had to stop making silver coins. In 1964, M3 was $408 billion. Today's (remember this was written in Feb. 2007, before the most recent binge of printing 3 or 4 more trillion Dollars) 11.5 trillion divided by 408 billion, times $1.39/oz, is $39.00/oz! Therefore, if you can buy silver anywhere below $39/oz., that's about as fortunate as it gets, because that would be like being able to "go back in time" and hoard silver coins in 1964. Today, silver is around $14/oz. What a bargain! Buying silver today, (Feb. 21, 2007) is like buying silver dollars in 1964 or for only 36 cents each! Today, a bag of 1964 silver coins containing $1000 face value worth of coins sells for about $9,000 for the silver value. And remember, 1980's high price of $50/oz. for silver is $315 dollars in today's dollars. (Thus, Don calculates that given that there are 723.392 oz. of pure silver in a $1000 bag of circulated pre 1965 U.S. coins, (723.392oz. x $315.00) makes that bag equal to $227,868, inflation adjusted to the price of silver in 1982. This would mean that when a loaf of bread has an inflated cost of say $20 or $25 Dollars, the 1964 U.S. silver dime is all you would need to buy it, as it would be worth about $23.00!!!
I hope you enjoyed this view of history projected to the present, See you in the future! For Quick Reference: 1964 M3: 408 billion --last year of silver coinage ($1.39/oz. for silver, former low) Silver's 2007 inflation adjusted low (from 1964): $39/oz. Gold's 2007 inflation adjusted low (from 1971): $587/oz. |
90% US Silver Coin Bags, $1000 Face Since 1 ounce rounds, 10 ounce bars, and 100 ounce bars are getting very hard to find, and a 6-8 week delay is unrealistically unacceptable, some of you may be considering buying 90% Silver, which are more available in places these days, especially, I hear, from www.fidelitrade.com. So, I figured that some of my readers would like my experienced opinion on acquiring this kind of silver product. Definition: 90% US Silver Coins come in "bags" of $1000 face value, which consist of 10,000 dimes, or 4000 quarters, or 2000 half dollars. The coins were regularly minted, circulating U.S. silver coinage dating 1964 or earlier. Usually, a "bag" is split up into two or four actual canvas sacks to make it easier to carry. The coins exclude silver dollars, which are another product. The silver is 90% silver, the rest, the other 10% is copper, to help harden and toughen the coinage. There is 0.72 of an ounce of silver in each $1 face value, or 10 dimes, 4 quarters, or 2 half dollars, but the industry counts it as if it's .715 ounces, due to coin wear. A full $1000 bag weighs about 54.5 pounds. The most common form is quarters, about 70% of the time. 20% of the time, you get dimes, and 10%, half dollars. Seems that the dealers hold back the dimes and half dollars because they might be more interesting. Known as: Benefits: 1. Easily divisible into small amounts, since they are already broken up into small amounts. 2. As former U.S. circulating coinage, the risk of confiscation might be the lowest of all forms of silver. 3. They just don't make this kind of silver anymore! 4. This silver is very difficult to counterfeit -- once you get some, you will see how our modern coinage is so different, as today's coins are lighter, the metal looks different, and todaY's coinage has the copper strip in the middle. Silver coinage also has that distinctive "ring" to it. 5. This silver has historical value and significance; as our forefathers worked a day's wage for these exact same silver dimes and quarters! It's amazing that you can get a silver dime for about $1.20 each, in bulk! 6. Price varies. Sometimes 90% coinage had a 30-50% premium, or extra value over the spot price, such as 6 months to a year prior to Y2K, as people wanted spendable, usable or more practical forms of silver. 7. Rarely, you might be able to pour through a bag of dimes, or half dollars, and find some coins that might have some numismatic value. I have separated out my mercury dimes from the rest, but nobody is paying any signifianct premium for these, maybe $50/bag which is not yet worth it. My mercury dimes might even end up having less value, being more worn down. 8. 90% silver is among the cheapest kind of silver you can get today, and it tends to be more available and easier to find. When this silver is the cheapest, you end up getting the most silver for your dollar, which is a significant advantage. One strategy among silver investors is to buy the kind of silver that is the cheapest at the time, and then sell the product that happens to be most highly valued in the marketplace at the time. 9. 90% silver might not be a reportable transaction. However laws change, and this is not legal advice. Check with your attorney (Yeah, as if attorneys know anything!) Drawbacks: 1. In 1980, when silver was being melted at the refiners, 90% silver coins were bought for about $35/oz. when silver was $50/oz, due to the fact that the refineries were backed up with too much 90% silver to melt down, and smelting them down is an added cost if there is a need to turn them into 1000 oz. Comex bars. (Personally, I don't think that's much of a worry or concern, since I'm not investing in silver hoping for a Comex-driven short covering spike and crash; instead, I'm expecting more of a permanant revaluation upwards as society must return to real silver and gold in commerce when paper money fails.) 2. Counting requires a coin counter, which can cost $1000; but most coin shops have these counters. (Or you can use a scale to see if the bag weighs 54.5 pounds.) 3. Regular, coinage, dated 1965 or later, can slip into the mix. This usually happens when 40% silver halves get slipped into the 90% silver half dollars, since they are more difficult to tell apart, since the 40% coins have no copper strip in the middle, and so you have to check the individual dates. One time my dealer found about 5-10 coins of 40% silver in one bag that I had bought years earlier. 4. Most people I tell about silver are not as interested in buying 90% silver, due to the fact that the conversion factor is "too much math" for most people to figure out by multiplying $1 face value times .715 ounces of silver. Most people want to easily know how much silver they have, and what it's worth. Most people prefer 1 ounce rounds, in my experience, because it's easier to know how much silver you have, and what it's worth. 5. There is a scam going around where 90% junk "walking half dollar liberties" are being sold for up to 72% over the spot price, and on leverage, (with no delivery of product) with interest on the loan of up to 15%, which is a horrible deal. These coins are not numismatic, and have no numismatic demand, and no numismatic value. As always, the best place to find silver is your local coin shop, and then try some large internet dealers. For more, see: Sincerely, |
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| It is important at this point to ask, "Why does the Federal Reserve exist?" It is not for any of the stated reasons. The continuous, perennial inflation of the dollar makes clear that the Fed does not control inflation. Nor does it create employment, because private industry already does that. The Federal Reserve, just like every other central bank in the world, exists for one reason: to make sure that government deficits are funded, that politicians get all of the currency they want to spend. In the absence of any external discipline imposed on the central bank, as existed under the classical gold standard, the central bank will inflate the currency until it is no longer accepted. It is then buried in the fiat currency graveyard alongside countless other fiat currencies, which is where the US dollar is headed.
In his just-released annual report to shareholders, Warren Buffett had this comment on the federal government's actions to resolve the economic crisis: "This debilitating spiral has spurred our government to take massive action. In poker terms, the Treasury and the Fed have gone 'all in.' Economic medicine that was previously meted out by the cupful has recently been dispensed by the barrel. These once-unthinkable dosages will almost certainly bring on unwelcome aftereffects. Their precise nature is anyone's guess, though one likely consequence is an onslaught of inflation." He reemphasizes the inflation risk later in his report by commenting: "I still believe the odds are good that oil sells far higher in the future than the current $40-$50 price." He also notes that "when the financial history of this decade is written, it will surely speak of the Internet bubble of the late 1990s and the housing bubble of the early 2000s. But the U.S. Treasury bond bubble of late 2008 may be regarded as almost equally extraordinary...Clinging to cash equivalents or long-term government bonds at present yields is almost certainly a terrible policy if continued for long [because] cash is earning close to nothing and will surely find its purchasing power eroded over time." Mr. Buffett stops far short of forecasting a hyperinflationary collapse, but his message is clear nonetheless. Inflation is a risk, to which I would add, hyperinflation is the real risk. In a world of fiat currencies, the only escape is the precious metals. So, now more than ever, own physical gold and physical silver. What about the next five years? The facts suggest that silver will wildly outperform stocks and real estate again. This time, I think silver will also wildly outperform bonds and gold, as well. That doesn’t mean that stocks, real estate, bonds and gold will go down. I am not predicting that. It just means that silver will beat them all in relative investment terms. |
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| Gold and silver are uniquely comparable. Both have been known by man throughout history. Both are the most popular precious metals held for investment. Both were money in the past. Because they are comparable, it would seem logical that if gold bullion was worth 140 times more than silver, it would suggest that 140 times more money was flowing into gold. This year, only 13 times more money came into gold. Last year it was only 5 times as much. In other objective measurements, such as the money flowing into gold and silver bullion coins from the U.S. Mint, only about 3 times more money has flowed into gold than silver in recent years. So the question that a serious student should ask (and the point I’m trying to make) is - why is the total amount of gold worth more than 140 times the amount of silver, if nowhere near 140 times more money is flowing into gold? The answer has nothing to do with gold being overvalued, or for that matter, anything to do with gold at all. The answer is because silver is grossly undervalued. The undervaluation exists because silver is artificially depressed in price and has been for more than 25 years. It’s doubtful you will ever see imbalances like this again in any other asset. That’s why the investor that’s educated on silver can see the incredible profit potential. The coming investment outperformance of silver will be something that’s written about for years to come. |
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In the entire history of the world, analysts estimate that about 162,500 metric tons of gold have been mined. Incidentally gold is so dense that a metric ton of it will fit in a solid cube less than 15 inches square. Thus all the gold ever mined IN HISTORY, anywhere would fit in a cube less than 67 feet per side! Of this global above-ground gold supply, as of Q3 2008 the world’s central banks held 29,784t. Thus the CBs control just 18% of the world’s total above-ground gold. Investors control a far-greater 82%. Since this gold bull began in 2001, mined production has averaged about 2,500t per year. So if the world’s central banks decided to sell all their gold today, it would be like 12 years of production hitting the markets all at once. The gold price would utterly crash in such a scenario, it would be apocalyptic. Thankfully it will never happen for a wide array of reasons. First, 107 sovereign countries own this gold and they are never all going to agree on anything, let alone a coordinated gold dump. Of this 29,784t of official gold holdings, 8,134t (27%) belongs to the United States. Many gold conspiracy theorists believe a big fraction of this gold has already been stealthily sold into the marketplace. This is very bullish if true since it reduces the threat of future sales. Even if the US still holds this gold though, the US dollar would probably collapse if an announcement was made that the US was dumping its gold reserves. It is extremely unlikely. 10,911t (37%) of this CB gold is held in the Eurozone, and this gold is a very high percentage of these countries’ total foreign-exchange reserves (58% in aggregate). So European CBs have been selling gold aggressively to diversify since at least 1999. That year they met and formed what was later called the Central Bank Gold Agreement. They agreed to limit their collective gold sales to 400t annually over 5 years. In March 2004 in CBGA 2, this agreement was extended and expanded to a 500t-per-year maximum for another 5 years. While these targets haven’t always been hit in a given CBGA year (ending September), they are a good proxy for European CB sales as a whole. Since 2000, European CBs alone have sold between 400t to 500t of gold annually. These are indeed big numbers, adding 16% to 20% to the global mined supply. Without these sales, gold’s price would have gone much higher. But even with them, gold has still nearly quadrupled since early 2001! This means even heavy sustained CB selling is not big enough to offset the growing investment demand for gold. So far in this secular gold bull, despite the CBs’ giant selling campaigns, gold has still powered higher. Central banks are not an apocalyptic threat for gold. Every year European CBs sell gold, which makes their “market share” of total above-ground gold dwindle. And every year more gold is mined, farther reducing CBs’ relative footprint in the gold world. Thus with each passing year, with every tonne of CB gold sold, central-bank impact and relevance in the gold market gradually fades. They are nowhere near as big of threat today as they were in 2001 and with each passing year their positions continue to weaken. And not all central banks are sellers. 10,739t (36%) of CB gold is held outside of the US and Europe. These Asian central banks will probably increasingly buy physical gold bullion. While western CBs’ gold holdings generally represent 50% to 75% of each country’s total forex reserves, in Asia gold is just a few percent. Japan’s 765t of gold are just 2.1% of its forex reserves. China’s 600t are merely 0.9%. Russia’s 473t are only 2.1%. And India’s 358t account for a paltry 3.1%. These growing Asian giants need to diversify into gold, not out of it like the Western CBs. They will add to overall global investment demand. The International Monetary Fund holds 3,217t (11% of official gold). Potential IMF gold sales are a perennial threat trotted out every few years to scare gold investors. Even back in 2001 IMF sales were discussed often, yet big IMF selling has still not come to pass in the 7 years since. Even if the IMF can get permission from its 185 member countries to sell gold, which is very unlikely for political reasons, the IMF gold cannot stop this secular gold bull. Bring it on, the Asian CBs would love to own the IMF gold. At any rate, the key thing to remember about central-bank gold sales is they have been large and constant since gold was in the $250s. Yet even with this supply headwind, gold still nearly quadrupled to just over $1000 by early 2008! Even the worst that central banks could throw at gold wasn’t enough to seriously retard its secular bull. And with each tonne they sell, their relative share of above-ground gold (along with their relevance) dwindles. CB gold is finite. It is central banks that are the anachronism, not gold. |
| 10 All the positives about gold apply to silver, in spades. Silver is rarer and scarcer than gold and it sells for less than 1.5% of the price of gold. So, if you like gold, you should love silver. 13 16 20 The only real risk facing silver investors is how you hold your metal. This Madoff affair should wake up metals investors holding pool or certificate accounts with no serial numbers. Hold your silver in your personal possession or in bona fide storage. Don’t store your metal with the dealer you purchased it from. The storage agent must be separate and distinct from the sales agent. The big problem with Madoff is that he held everyone’s funds. When he went under, everyone’s money went under with him. As certain as I am of silver’s coming price advance, I am equally certain that many silver investors will lose their money by holding bogus accounts. You have one of the great opportunities of a lifetime with silver. Don’t expose your profit potential to unnecessary risk. Lies will seek you out, but the truth must be sought. Faith, gold and silver will be priceless in the days ahead. |
| Added May 16, 2009... We note that last year's average gold price was $871.96 per ounce. We note that the minimum any self-respecting hard-money newsletter vendor allowed for the market last year, or this year, started in the four-digits. We note that reality is somewhere else. Like in the following little set of numbers: The average gold price for the period 1974 to 2000: $335
May 21, 2009...Think about this: It's absolutely true that I would not need silver or gold if I had all my current and future needs fulfilled. But it is impossible to fulfill future needs today; by definition, the future comes in the future. And so, as long as I have any uncertainty about my future needs, then gold and silver is a good substitute to have in the here and now, because I can reliably use it for my future needs. May 21, 2009... From Ted Butler: |
| Added 5-23-09 The ‘BANKS’… and the rest of us… When wagon trains would come under attack, the wagon masters would “circle the wagons” for protection. Such is happening today as capitalism itself is now under attack. What Americans are finding out, however, is that only the bankers are currently inside the circle—bankers are now the only ones being protected, the very ones responsible for the crisis in the first place. Observers and especially Americans might believe that something is wrong with this picture. What they do not understand is that the picture is a perfect reflection of the power dynamic underlying capitalism. Bankers could not have accomplished their nefarious ends had they not first secured the full cooperation and protection of government. This they did in England when they promised King William they would extend all the credit he wanted to wage his wars. This was replicated in the US when private bankers staged a midnight coup by passage of the Federal Reserve Act in 1913 which illegally transferred the right to issue money from government into the hands of private bankers. This is the reason the US government has first protected the bankers, not the public, in this crisis. Bankers give government the unlimited credit that governments overspend, thereby indebting the nation and future generations into perpetuity. The US government bailout of bankers, TARP, is “owe-back” time. The rest is history, or is about to become so. When people have their eyes shut and their minds closed, they will not see nor understand what is happening to them. Trust me on this, although many will not understand what is about to happen, it will not prevent it from happening. What we are about to experience is an economic tragedy in personal terms that will exceed anything in recent memory. Even the Great Depression of the 1930s will not equal what is now about to be; and those who thought their adherence to a belief system about God was faith are now about to find out the difference. IGNORANCE DENIAL CONSEQUENCES Uncle Sam is now engaged in the same activity that caused Bernie’s investors so much trouble, the use of Ponzi finance to pay bills. It is estimated that the US deficit may increase this year by two trillion dollars. As recently as 1980, the total US debt after 200 years was only $980 billion dollars. Now, 28 years later, US indebtedness will probably exceed $12 trillion, a very, very large sum—unless of course it is not going to be paid back. The truth is all countries are now running deficits and all major economies have determined that extraordinary levels of fiscal stimulus are needed to avert a global deflationary collapse. Where is all the money going to come from? While some economic answers are difficult to come by, the answer to that question is very simple. The currencies of all countries are now fiat, meaning they are but paper coupons printed at will by their governments. The answer is: Governments will print the money they need. It is said that Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke studied the Great Depression and concluded the road not taken was the correct answer to what would have prevented the Great Depression, that infinite liquidity could have prevented the deflationary collapse if made available in time. Ben Bernanke’s answer closely resembles that which would be given by a focus group of New York heroin addicts, that only an unlimited and immediate supply of heroin would offset the irreparable pain and harm that would otherwise result if nothing is done. HELICOPTER BEN IS AFFECTIONATELY KNOWN AS NEEDLE BEN TO THE CREDIT JUNKIES ON WALL STREET THE EXPIRATION DATE WRITTEN IN INVISIBLE INK ON PAPER MONEY WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE SPEED OF THE PRINTING PRESSES When will the yen go to zero? When will the dollar disintegrate? When will the pound become worthless? When will the time be too late? Listen to the speed of the presses As money is made overnight The faster the presses are running The closer the time will be for flight But no one can tell the hour When money will lose its worth For the future is still too cloudy And tomorrow’s yet to be birthed. But the day is coming so trust me Don’t trust the money they print Whether a dollar a euro or peso It ain’t comin’ out of a mint It’s printed with ink on some paper But it used to be silver or gold When money was more than a promise Not a fraud that we’ve been sold THE PRINTING PRESSES ARE RUNNING This process has already begun. M1, the measure of “narrow money aggregates”, the amount of cash and coins in circulation and in overnight deposits has been rising in the past six months. M-3, the broadest measure of monetary aggregates is no longer made public by the US government. But M-3 will explode upwards as governments seek to provide even more credit to deflating markets, a fact the US government does not want known. M-1, NARROW MONEY AGGREGATES 13 WEEK RATE-OF-CHANGE. US FEDERAL RESERVE Week ending June 9, 2008 - 0.1 % Week ending July 28, 2008 + 2.9 % Week ending Aug 25, 2008 + 6.2 % Week ending Sept 29, 2008 + 8.8 % Week ending Oct 27, 2008 +14.8 % Week ending Nov 24, 2008 +22.6 % Week ending Dec 29, 2008 +32.2 % Ben Bernanke’s antidote to a US deflationary depression may well result in hyperinflation. Hyperinflation will spell the end of the US currency because hyperinflation removes all remaining vestiges of confidence in paper money. Confidence is the essential ingredient in the global con game called capitalism now being run by bankers and their unwitting co-conspirators in government, a game that is now about to end. In the near future, paper money will become increasingly worthless as all governments increase the printing of their respective currencies hoping to prevent deflationary forces from progressing. Governments will be helpless to do so but this will only cause more money to be printed in the futile hope of containing that which cannot be contained. No experiment with paper money has ever worked. The primary intent has always been to spend what does not exist. This underlying intent will in the end destroy whatever paper money has built in the interim. Were it not for the safety concerns about the ink used in the printing of paper money, in the future the best use for paper money would be as toilet paper—of course, the quality of the paper would have to be much improved in order to gain wider acceptance. FREEDOM VERSUS FRAUD A CRASH COURSE IN THE AUSTRIAN SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS Bernard Madoff’s fraud lasted 48 years and took in $50 billion. However, the monetary fraud perpetrated by bankers in collusion with government has lasted far longer and has taken in far more than Bernie’s home grown Ponzi scheme—and the pain and losses will be commensurately greater as well. Ludwig von Misis, Carl Menger, Eugen von Böhm-Bawerk, and Friedrich Hayek are the best known proponents of the Austrian School of Economics. Like Hyman Minsky, they are not as well known as John Maynard Keynes, Milton Friedman and Alan Greenspan. The reason being is that they served the truth whereas Keynes, Friedman and Greenspan served power. From Wikipedia: Austrian School economists advocate the strict enforcement of voluntary contractual agreements between economic agents, the smallest possible imposition of coercive (especially government-imposed) commercial transactions and the maximum openness to individual choice (including free choice as to the voluntary means of exchange). What most do not understand is that today’s markets are not free. Believing they are free and being told it is so, is not the same as being so. Government intervention occurs no less in today’s capitalist markets than it did in yesterday’s communist markets. The only difference being method and subtlety. The manipulation of the gold price, intervention in foreign exchange markets, the raising and lowering of interest rates, the use of tax incentives to promote/distort economic activity are all signs of government intervention. Compared to communism, capitalist markets indeed appear free. Compared to free markets, capitalism is a rigged game. GOLD, MODERN ECONOMICS, AND THE TRUTH We are now approaching the end-game, the resolution of past economic sins that cannot be banished by government intervention. Indeed, it is government intervention at the direction of bankers that caused today’s problems. More of the same will only result in more of the same. The bankers’ scam could not have happened had not King William allowed England’s bankers to replace England’s gold and silver coins with paper bank notes in 1694. Capitalism’s resultant empire known first as imperialism and later as globalization lasted 315 years. It is now about to end. As paper currencies increasingly lose value, the price of gold and silver will rise. As those in government know all too well, gold and silver move inversely to the value of paper assets in fiat systems. Economics is not rocket science and neither is fraud. But “modern economics” is a misnomer, modern economics is a monetary fraud clothed in the guise of free markets. If you truly want to be free, this is something you might want to think about—that is, if you want to think. Lies will seek you out, but the truth must be sought. Faith, gold and silver will be priceless in the days ahead. Darryl Robert Schoon www.survivethecrisis.com Blog - www.posdev.net/pdn/index.php?option=com_myblog&blogger=drs&Itemid=81 |
Added 5-30-09 |
Added 5/31/2009 Question of the Week by David Morgan Question -- This is the most commonly asked question-- will silver be confiscated? Here are some of my thoughts... Answer -- So this is what I say to you: Let the United States government try to confiscate silver under the pretext that it is a strategic metal and you will see the biggest meltdown on the Internet that there has ever been. Early in the 20th century, President Franklin Roosevelt confiscated gold and got on the radio and smoothed things over with a fireside chat. But folks, there is no "fireside" anymore. Let them try this time! I say to you, it will not be so simple, or so easy. The word will spread - the truth will come out. It is a manipulation of silver, not an emergency. It is a grab by bankers and short-sellers, not a patriotic request. We live in an exciting age, my friends, on the cusp of a communications' enlightenment not seen since Gutenberg Press overthrew the ruling hierarchy 500 years ago. How so? Are we at a similar point again readers? If so, it will only take 10 minutes or so, - that is magic of technology (the Internet) which doubles in speed and impact and then doubles again, and again. And we are into the 10 years already. Look for the signs of the thaw - they are all about you. It is no accident that Mexico is considering a silver backed currency (addressed this in the June issue of TMR), or that the Soviet Union has collapsed or that China continues to privatize. People believe these are all dissonant events, unlinked. Only much later will it become clear that we are in the midst of a historical communications revolution that is shattering the most coercive regimes and completely reconfiguring the power structure as we go. I say to you with absolute conviction that they cannot confiscate this time. They believed that 9/11 would give them the Patriot Act and a great victory in the U.S. for the forces of coercion and arbitrary exercise of power. It has not worked out that way. The forces of liberty, unleashed by the power of the Internet are winning, and will continue to win in this most historic of all decades. Oh, you might not see it that way but remember the biggest--PUSH-- comes right before the fall... Think about GM and how much advertising they are doing now... yet they are toast! The next five years will go down in history as the decade that shattered the iron grip of socialism and reconfigured the plans of world dominance that all-too-many harbored. Dan Rather is gone. It takes years to subvert liberty - generations in fact need to be "programmed" in a particular way. All that work, several generations worth in this country anyway - dating back at least to the Civil War - is going by the boards now. People are discovering liberty on their own and thinking for themselves. No, confiscation in this environment will NOT be easy. It will not be clean. People will NOT line up to hand over their silver. Not this time. Not in this day. Not with this Internet! David Morgan |
Added 6/18/2009: Click Here For Silver Coin Melt Value Calculation Coin Type: Silver Price: Answer: Total silver value is $5,201.19.
Added 6/18/2009: United States Circulated Silver Coinage Intrinsic Value Table These coins were in standard circulation until silver was removed from all coinage in 1965 and 1970 (40% silver half-dollars). I recognize that the silver Eisenhower dollar was issued as a collectible only, but I'm still categorizing it with this group. This table illustrates how far the metal value has progressed compared to the denomination's purchasing power after the debasement. |
Do not worry about who will redeem your silver ounces |
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| added Aug. 12, 2009 Historically, and based on 35 years of price history (courtesy www.mrci.com ), gold usually puts in a top in late July or early August, then a bottom in late August, followed by a Christmas rally that begins in August or September. (Last year's drop in November was an anomaly caused by the credit crunch). Historically, and based on 40 years of price history (courtesy www.mrci.com ), silver usually bottoms out in late August, tops in late September, bottoms again in late November (but not as low as the September bottom), then rises till early spring. My recent essay titled: “The Magic of the Golden Cross-over” which was published here on July 2nd proved to have picked the most recent bottom at exactly the time it occurred. To view that article just type the title into the Google search bar. Happy trading! Peter Degraaf |
Added 9/28/2009 Perfect storm for silver brewing as antibiotics substitute- Silver may soon replace antibiotics as an alternative for healing, and is increasingly gaining ground in the Click HERE to read the entire article...
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| Added Oct. 13, 2009 I am on record as predicting an “inflationary depression” but to be more precise, we will see inflation in those things tied to “human need”. No matter how good or bad the economy will be, people will still need to eat, drink, heat their homes, etc. For these reasons (and other ones), I like commodities for the long haul . For those deflationists that believe inflation is not possible when there are bad economic conditions, I say think again. Most hyperinflations in history happened during bad economic times. Germany (1920s), Yugoslavia (1989-1994) and Zimbabwe (2007-present) are good examples. Yes…inflation and a depression can happen simultaneously. Plan accordingly… Paul Mladjenovic |
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Gold up 37% since October 2008 |
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Silver up 72% since October 2008 |
| Oct. 23, 2009
"One Man's Opinion" Roger Wiegand Dems Demolition Derby
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11-05-09
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Added: 11/20/2009 |
| Purchasing Power 101 By Dr. Jeffrey Lewis Purchasing Power 101 Purchasing power is a calculation of how much you could buy with X amount of money. Although prices seem stagnant in the short term, and are even depreciating for some products, general increases in consumer prices are only a natural response to inflation. Purchasing power should be at the forefront of a proper investment plan. Does it really matter if your investments are on track to be worth $1 million in 20 years if a loaf of bread will cost $20 and a gallon of milk $50? The Failures of Cash Investments Many people falsely believe that by storing cash in an interest bearing savings account or certificate of deposit, they are hedging themselves against inflation. However, this is rarely the case. Because bid interest rates (those you receive for lending, or depositing, in a bank) often lag true inflation, the damage to purchasing power is done long before true inflation in prices arrives. CPI is Not an Inflation Measurement Many banks and institutions sell “inflation-protected” debt instruments that are tied to the inflation rate. Usually, these investments pay a certain percentage per year with a bonus added to rival the inflation rate, thus guaranteeing that investors always earn more than the rate of inflation. This couldn't be more intellectually dishonest, as the Consumer Price Index fails to take into consideration the change of the money supply, but rather the change of prices of consumer goods. The CPI is calculated by finding the prices for a “basket” of consumer goods and charting the average change in price over a period of time. Much of the “basket” is centered on consumer staples like groceries, gasoline, etc., as they make up the most basic elements of modern life. Where the CPI Fails One of the failures of the CPI index is that it only reflects the changes in the sticker price – and not the changes in the amount of the consumer goods. If you visited a grocery store in the past ten years, you have likely noticed that the sticker price of many goods has not changed, but the weight of the product has. For example, bags of sugar (one part of the CPI) were almost universally sold at $1 per 5 lb bag until five years ago. Today, you'd be hard-pressed to find a single 5-lb bag of sugar, as most companies have begun to sell 4 lb bags, but at the same price of $1 per bag. Although the price did not change, the quantity did by 20%. However, this change went unnoticed by the CPI calculation. How to Track True Inflation The only way to track the true inflation rate, and thus protect your spending power, is to invest in hard assets (commodities, physical metals, etc.) that rise in value as the value of the dollar drops. Gold and silver especially track the change in the money supply with accuracy, as the amount of gold and silver at the surface of the earth proportional to the number of people remains consistent. In contrast, inflation increases the amount of dollars in circulation. When you have more paper money while the supply of precious metals stays consistent, this only leads to an increase in the value of the precious metals themselves. The only way to preserve your spending power and your wealth is to meet or exceed the true rate of inflation, not the rate of inflation as calculated by complicated (and often corrupted) economic models. Dr. Jeff Lewis
ADDED: 1/5/2010 Now that 2009 has come to a close, investors are looking forward to the happenings of 2010. One of the most important events is the issuance of nearly $2.2 trillion in Treasury bonds to fund government spending. Although $2.2 trillion seems relatively small compared to a federal debt just over $12 trillion, the size is magnified when you consider its impact on the markets.
Dr. Jeffrey Lewis |
| Added 02/08/2010 |
| Commodity Ratios: The Investing Truth They Reveal By Dr. Jeffrey Lewis Feb 4 2010 10:05AM As gold prices near new highs, some are calling gold's skyrocket success a bubble. However, informed investors are seeing it differently; gold is not much more expensive than its 1980 levels, even despite runaway growth in the money supply over the past 30 years.
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